PoliticsPhoto: HT WorldAnalysis of The Economist's Midterm Election Model Performance
The Economist's congressional election model was the most conservative forecast for the Democratic wave in the recent US midterms. It predicted only a 52% chance of Democrats winning the Senate, lower than competitors' 65-85%. While it allowed an 8% chance for Democrats to win at least 56 Senate seats, its House forecast underestimated Democrats securing 260 seats, just above its 95% prediction interval. The model differs by using a fundamentally different approach than typical bottom-up forecasts.
HT World·


